Since my last review in Feb, the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) has slumped after attempting to break out to the upside though the 4400 level. For much of this period the market was in a slow grind, with little impulsive price action (positive or negative).
Since peaking at 4449 on 1 May, the XJO has sold off aggressively and is currently at 4047. In the week ending 18 May, the market was down 5.6% in broad-based selling. Only the utilities sector escaped the carnage (+2.12%), however this was aided by the takeover offer for Hastings Diversified (HDF), up 12.8% for the week. Biggest loser among the largecaps was Toll Holdings (TOL) down 23.2%.
Why the drop?
The market has caught the nerves due to uncertainties in Europe (again). In addition, admission of over $2bn in trading losses by JP Morgan has not assisted confidence.
It should be noted that May and June are historically weak months, as 3 of the big 4 banks have gone ex-dividend and underperformers are typically aggressively sold as investors realise tax losses.
Where to from here?
I see weakness with an approximate target of c.3800 by 30 June. A lot obviously depends on the resolution (or lack thereof) to the European problems.
I think rallies will be short lived and could be viewed as selling or shorting opportunities.
Below is a weekly chart of the XJO since the market peaked in 2007. We are still in a secular bear market with the rally from the March 2009 lows essentially stalled and the market remaining approximately 40% off its all time highs in November 2011. Click on the chart to open it in a new window.
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